A Three Dimensional Approach To Forex Trading: Using the power of relational, fundamental and technical analysis (Anna Coulling, 2013)

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Potential correlate markets (secondary following)

  • Gold ∝ US dollar
  • WTI oil ∝ USD/CAD
  • WTI oil ∝ USD/NOK
  • WTI oil = CAD/JPY
  • Copper = S&P 500
  • Nikkei 225 = USD/JPY
  • EUR/JPY = S&P 500
  • Nikkei 225 = S&P 500
  • VIX ∝ S&P 500
Key indexes

  • VIX, CBOE
  • CRB, Commodity Research Bureau
  • CCI, Commodity Channel Index
  • TED spread: difference of the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR
  • Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): protection against inflation

Currency

  • Weak currency good for export and bad for import.
  • Rising inflation signals economic health, but may also lead to inflow from overseas which strengthen the home currency.
Data to be used
  • GDP
  • CPI
  • Employment data and NFP
  • PPI
  • PMI
  • Trade balance
  • Retail sales
  • Housing data
  • US pending home sales
  • Building permits
  • Loans and mortgage data
  • Composite indices
    • CB Consumer confidence index
Candle stick
  • The hammer: small top, long bottom wick: reverse bottom
  • Shooting star: small bottom, long top wick: reverse top
  • Doji: small middle, long top and bottom wick: stagnant
  • Bearish engulfing: small up candle followed by a long down candle, both with wick
  • Bullish engulfing: small down candle followed by a long up candle, both with wick
  • Tweezer top: 2 candle with long top wick: reverse top
  • Tweezer bottom: 2 long candle with long bottom wick: reverse bottom
  • Hanging man: very small body with long bottom wick: reverse top
  • Inside bar: large bar followed by small bar: continuation
    • Long wick for small bar: reversal
Indicators
  • Simple moving average (SMA): 15 SMA crosses 50 SMA = reversal
  • Bollinger band: where the price is moving next
  • Fibonacci: reversal at 61.8%
  • Elliot wave
  • MACD: cut the graph = reversal
  • RSI: cut top or bottom line = reversal
  • Ichimoku: cloud above market = bearish, cloud below market = bullish, thin cloud = reversal, thick cloud = strong trend

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