China: The Bubble That Never Pops (Thomas Orlik, 2020)

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  •  1720
    • South sea bubble.
  • 1840
    • Investment frenzy for railroad.
  • 1953
    • Mao Zedong started the 5-year plan.
  • 1978
    • Deng Xiaoping opened the door to 4 decades of rapid growth.
  • 1980
    • Major banks cross hold stocks and lend between each other.
    • China's economy is only 457 billion yuan.
  • 1989
    • Japan's excessive lending resulted in a bubble in equity and real estate.
    • 72% drop in land price resulting in loss of profit and a decade of stagnant growth.
    • China reform too quickly and GDP fell.
  • 1990
    • South Korea chaebols playing with low rate loans.
    • Internet revolution.
  • 1991
    • Soviet union fell.
  • 1997
    • Asian high foreign borrowing and crony-capitalism cause a chain crisis.
    • Thailand and Indonesia suffered heavy losses.
    • George Soro’s quantum fund is the cause as he knows Asian central banks cannot maintain overvalued exchange rates.
  • 1998
    • Asian financial crisis reduced imports from China.
  • 2000
    • Mortgage loans shoot up the roof and people without income or assets are allowed borrowing.
  • 2007
    • USA runaway mortgage lending and lax financial regulation triggered the subprime mortgage crisis.
    • If you have a pulse we give you a loan.
  • 2008
    • Great financial crisis triggered low imports from China again.
  • 2012
    • Shadow lending decreases causing lower property price.
  • 2013
    • First year of Xi presidency he removed tens of thousands of corrupted officials to remove his rivals and install allies.
    • Further action against shadow banking froze their financial system.
  • 2016
    • Anbang bank over-issued financial papers while ICBC assets are all domestically acquired.
    • Real estate lending rose to 76.8 million yuan.
    • Closure of coal mines in Guizhou.
  • 2015
    • People’s Bank of China profited a 2 trillion yuan from loan to cover losses of real estate developers.
    • Land sales plummeted 23.9%.
    • China’s stock bubble burst but was insignificant as it doesn’t play an important role in China’s financial system.
    • Erect barriers to capital outflows.
  • 2017
    • Household debt has reached 260% of the GDP.
    • Government loan up to 14.2 trillion yuan.
    • China spent $444 billion on technology R&D.
  • 2018
    • The Chinese economy has become 88.7 trillion yuan.
  • 2019
    • The USA wants ZTE and Huawei to transfer technology.
    • China’s debt is 259.4% to its GDP.
  • 2022
    • Xi is going to step down and uncertainty pursues.
  • 2024
    • China debt will rise above 330% of GDP.
  • 2025
    • China expects long-term industrial development and increases domestic share to 70%.


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