Trend Trading: A Seven Step Approach to Success (Daryl Guppy, 2004)
Probability Sideway: continue moving sideway is 70% while up and down is 15% each. Uptrend: continue moving up is 75% while spike up is 15% and down is 10%. Downtrend: continue moving down is 80% while spike down is 10% and up is 5%. Our trading philosophy rests on five foundation beliefs: Everybody has the same information that we do, or more. Price behaviour reflects crowd emotion. Today's price is a continuation of yesterday's crowd emotion. Future price behaviour is best analysed in terms of a probability matrix. Risk is directly related to price and is manageable. Harm minimisation Recognising the destructive behaviour. Large losses are a strong hint there is a problem. Sidetracking the behaviour by removing the trigger. This may mean changing the way you see the market. Trend line application Trend line analysis and trade management Parabolic curve Parabolic trends often collapse very rapidly, often with prices gapping downwards. Parabolic trend...