Aloysius Chan's Blog

British cycling team made 1% improvement by using better alcohol for better grip. gel for faster muscle recovery and etc. They won many olympic and got new world record. 1% better every day for one year. 1.01 365 = 37.78 The Plateau of Latent Potential - breakthrough (or overnight success) Bamboo spent first 5 years building its foundation and burst 19 feet within 6 weeks. Focus on the system and not the goal. 3 layers of behavioural change. Identity will eventally become a habit. Change of perspective "The goal is not the win at trading, the goal is to make money as a trader." How habit works: Cue > Craving > Response > Reward Cue: Hit stumbling block in a project. Craving: Feel stuck and want to relieve frustration. Response: Check social media on phone. Reward: Checking social media becomes associated with feeling stall at work. To break bad habit: Cue: Make it invisible. Craving: Make it attractive. Response: Make it easy. Reward: Make it satisfying. Point-and-ca...

Never believe in the experts for financial advise. Investment: an effort to obtain, in addition, a rental from others for the temporary use of capital. Speculation: using capital in such a manner that its spending power is not only preserved but also increased, through the realisation of profits in the form of dividends, or capital gains or both. Successful investment is a battle for financial survival. There is no perfect investment plan in the world. What to look for in a company is whether the company has enough cash generating factor. Investments is so we can spend more in the future. Volume Volume of trading is also an important factor. It is difficult to define in positive terms. If you are driving a car you can get to your destination more quickly at 50 mph. than at 10 mph. But you may wreck the car at 100 mph. In a similar way increasing volume on an advance up to a point is bullish and decreasing volume on a rally is bearish, but in both cases only up to a point.

The market is always right. Markets is always bias in one direction or another. Markets can influence the events that they anticipate. Best way to deal with international lending. A reflective phenomenon in its own right. A factor in the evolution of the banking system. As part of the current economic situation.

Indicators ARIMA - autoregressive integrated moving average Fourier spectral analysis DMI - directional movement index ADX - average directional movement index Envelope Rate of change

Charts 1. Charts provide a concise price history—an essential item of information for any trader.  Charts can provide the trader with a good sense of the market's volatility—an important consideration in assessing risk.  Charts are a very useful tool to the fundamental analyst. Long­term price charts enable the fundamentalist to isolate quickly the periods of major price moves. By determining the fundamental conditions or events that were peculiar to those periods, the fundamentalist can identify the key price­influencing factors. This information can then be used to construct a price behavior model.  Charts can be used as a timing tool, even by traders who formulate their trading decisions on the basis of other information (e.g., fundamentals). Charts can be used as a money management tool by helping to define meaningful and realistic stop points.  Charts reflect market behavior that is subject to certain repetitive patterns. Given sufficient experience, some trader...

What is technical analysis? It refers to the study of the action of the market itself as opposed to the study of the goods in which the market deals.  The science of recording, usually in graphic form, the actual history of trading (price changes, volume of transactions, etc.) in “the Averages” and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend. Basic Tenets (and Dow Theory) The Averages Discount Everything (except “Acts of God”). The Three Trends. The Primary Trends. The Secondary Trends. The Minor Trends. The Bull Market. The Bear Market. The Two Averages Must Confirm. “Volume Goes with the Trend”. “Lines” May Substitute for Secondaries. Only Closing Prices Used. A Trend Should Be Assumed to Continue in Effect Until Such Time as Its Reversal Has Been Definitely Signaled. Head and shoulder with complex head Right angle triangle = continuation Boardening top = reversal The importance of the spike is highlighted by The strength and length of the action which prec...

Reversal patterns. A prerequisite for any reversal pattern is the existence of a prior trend. The first signal of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline. The larger the pattern, the greater the subsequent move. Topping patterns are usually shorter in duration and more volatile than bottoms. Bottoms usually have smaller price ranges and take longer to build. Volume is usually more important on the upside. Volume and open interest rules Volume is used in all markets; open interest mainly in futures. Only the total volume and open interest are used for futures. Increasing volume (and open interest) indicate that the current price trend will probably continue. Declining volume (and open interest) suggest that the price trend may be changing. Volume precedes price. Changes in buying or selling pressure are often detected in volume before price. On balance volume (OBV), or some variation thereof, can be used to more accurately measure the direction of vol...

What supermarket does not want you to know 90% of revenue gone missing between the consumer and the farmer. Turkey voting for Thanksgiving “Self-incrimination” strategy, such as Starbucks. Different quantity and 3 for the price of 2 discounts. Walk 500m to just to save 30p. There is no real scacity power, consumer usually too lazy to walk into another door. Perfert markets and the "world of truth" Prices reveal a lot of information. Crosstown traffic New Orleans effect Houses are taxed based on the front stories, so many will build one story house at the front and many stories at the back. Camelback house.

The number three is believed to mark the start or turning point of a series of events. Sakata’s five rules are: Sanzan - three mountains,  Sanpei - three soldiers,  Sansen - three rivers,  Sankoo - three spaces,  Sanpo - three laws. For Ichimoku charts we use two specific moving averages which are:  Tenkan-sen (“Conversion Line”): is a nine-day moving average,  (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2, for the past 9 periods Kijun-sen (“Base Line”): is a twenty six-day moving average. (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2, for the past 26 periods Senkou Span A & B The first line of the Cloud, the deep pink one, is known as Senkou Span A (“Leading Span A”) and is calculated by adding the Tenkan (9-day average) and Kijun (26-day average) values and dividing by two. This line is then plotted 26 days ahead of the last complete day’s trading.  (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen)/2, plotted 26 periods ahead The second line (turquoise), imaginatively called Senkou Span B (“Leading Spa...

Microchip Immune Deficiency Syndrome, or MIDS A disease that can afflict any bloated, overweight, sclerotic system in the post- Cold War era. MIDS is usually contracted by countries and companies that fail to inoculate themselves against changes brought about by the microchip, and the democratizations of technology, finance and information-which created a much faster, more open and more complex marketplace, with a whole new set of efficiencies. The symptoms of MIDS appear when a country or company exhibits a consistent inability to increase productivity, wages, living standards, knowledge use and competitiveness, and becomes too slow to respond to the challenges of the Fast World. Countries and companies with MIDS tend to be those run on Cold War corporate models - where one or a few people at the top hold all the information and make all the decisions, and all the people in the middle and the bottom simply carry out those decisions, using only the information they need to know to do t...

Introduction The elephant and 6 blind men. Predicting the market is like the 6 blind men describing what are they touching. The CAPM model helps separate out portfolio returns into a market component and a residual component.  Portfolios with a zero market component are called market neutral portfolios.  Market neutral strategies involve the trading of market neutral portfolios, and the returns generated by such strategies are uncorrelated with the market.  Pairs trading is a genre of market neutral strategies in which a portfolio has only two assets. Time series A time series is constructed by periodically drawing samples from probability distributions that vary with time.  The white noise process is the most elementary form of time series and is generated by drawing samples from a fixed distribution at every time instance.  Auto-regressive moving average (ARMA). ARMA time series are generated using fixed linear combinations of white noise realizations.  T...

As payment progresses, there is an increase of digital banks and business digital banks. Unlike digital banks which are standalone and have the full bank license, business digital banks are only for corporations and require a full bank partner to function. In business digital banks, you will see the debiting and crediting account actually belongs to a local bank with an extended account number. In a way it is very safe as virtually they are just a middleman and your money is in the full bank with the protection from Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation (SDIC) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). More commonly, they are considered a financial technology (fintech) company than to be called a bank. There are limits to what a business digital bank can do. First of all, there will no longer be any counter services which greatly save on manpower and storefront. In fact, most banking services do not require anymore counter services especially when most payments are made digitally now...

Bearish reveral Consecutive 8/10/12/13 up candles. Abandoned Baby, Bearish reversal Abandoned Baby, Bullish reversal Above the Stomach, Bullish reversal Advance Block, Bearish reversal Below the Stomach, Bearish reversal Belt Hold, Bearish reversal Belt Hold, Bullish reversal Breakaway, Bearish reversal Breakaway, Bullish reversal Candle, Black, Reversal or continuation Candle, Short Black, Reversal or continuation (indecision) Candle, Short White, Reversal or continuation (indecision) Candle, White, Reversal or continuation (indecision) Concealing Baby Swallow, Bullish reversal Dark Cloud Cover, Bearish reversal Deliberation, Bearish reversal Doji, Dragonfly, Indecision to bullish reversal (during a decline) Doji, Gapping Down, Bearish continuation Doji, Gapping Up, Bullish continuation Doji, Graveston, Indecision to bearish (during an uptrend) reversal Doji, Long-Legged, Indecision Doji, Northern, Bearish reversal Doji, Southern, Bullish reversal Doji Star, Bearish reversal Doji Star...